Leading the story: The publication’s House editor Dave Wasserman on Thursday shifted the ratings of five more House seats in the Democratic direction.
The rating swings include the Alaska House seat that Democrat Mary Peltola won in a special election over Trump-backed Republican Sarah Palin. Wasserman rates the Alaska seat a “flyaway” for November. Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who represents a suburban district that supported President Biden by 6 points, is now seen as the favorite for re-election over Republican Jesse Vega. “Vega’s Todd Akin-like ‘hot mic’ comments about the possibility of pregnancy after rape are a godsend for Spanberger,” Wasserman writes. Wasserman also notes that “Democratic primaries that pull candidates to the right” were a factor in the improved forecast for Democrats.
Why it matters: While Republicans are still favored to win back the House majority, their margins are now likely to be narrower than once expected. And the fact that there is now a path for Democrats to retain their majority, however narrow, is a stark change from expectations just a few months ago. Zoom Out: A new Wall Street Journal poll conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone shows clear Democratic momentum over the summer.
Democrats now hold a 3-point advantage (47%-44%) on the general congressional ballot, a significant change from the March 2022 poll. Back then, Republicans held a 5-point advantage. Among political independents, more voters now prefer a Democratic candidate for Congress than a Republican (38%-35%). In March, Republicans led among independents by 12 percentage points. President Biden’s job approval rating has jumped to 45%, up 4 points from March. He would comfortably defeat former President Trump in a rematch in 2024, 50%-44%. In March the two candidates were tied.
But, but, but: There are still plenty of warning signs for overconfident Democrats. Only 23% of respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction and 35% have a positive view of the economy. Republicans have a 12-point advantage over Democrats on who is better at controlling inflation.
And another Fabrizio and Anzalone poll of Nevada voters (commissioned by AARP) shows Democrats in rough shape. The Nevada survey finds Biden with a job approval rating of just 40 percent, while the governorship and Senate Democrats are statistically tied with GOP challengers.
The bottom line: Democrats are in the best political position they’ve been in all year. But campaigns are just beginning to ramp up after the Labor Day weekend, and the party in power is typically more vulnerable to a fickle American electorate.
