First, some context. Young, who died in March at age 88, had held the seat since 1973, winning a special election of his own after former Democratic Rep. Nick Begich mysteriously disappeared from a flight and was declared dead. Begich’s grandson, Nick Begich III — whose uncle Mark was a former Democratic senator — ran for the seat this year, albeit as a Republican. And despite his Democratic origins, the Alaska Republican Party endorsed him, presumably finding that he was a better candidate than Palin – and yet he still came in third. Peltola’s three-point victory is certainly a boon for Democrats, who have long feared they could lose their slim majority in the House in November. Indeed, they lost a member yesterday when Florida Rep. Charlie Crist suddenly resigned to focus on his gubernatorial campaign against Ron DeSandis. Peltola’s Independent opponent in the second round of four elections withdrew, giving her a free seat. But on the Republican side, Begich and Palin were left tearing at each other throughout the campaign. And while Palin — who has been elected governor since 2007 but resigned in the 2009 midterms after her notoriously failed VP bid — barely lost by a wide margin, many Republicans likely resent the fact that she entered the race in the first place. The red flags were always there. As early as April, polls showed that while Palin started her campaign with a lead, 51 percent of Alaskans had an unfavorable opinion of her. (Incidentally, Peltola didn’t even sign up for that first survey.) Not only did her numbers not improve, they actually got worse: a July poll found that 43.7 percent of voters had a “very negative” opinion of her , and 16.3 percent “somewhat negative.” Palin and Begich attacked relentlessly. Begich released an ad calling her a quitter and saying she was “cheering herself. Unaware. Mentally harmful, and [full of] empty rhetoric”. Ouch. Palin, for her part, dismissed Begić’s attacks as “full of bull.” “When you’re counting on second-choice votes,” he said, “it’s the strangest tactic he has. I think he’s very confused.” Begich finished third under the state’s new selection ranking system. But regardless of the order in which they finished, the two Republicans’ caustic campaign against each other may have cost their party a seat they’ve held for nearly five decades. Fifty percent of Begic voters ranked Palin second, while about 29 percent ranked Peltola second. But perhaps most surprising is that about 21 percent of Begić voters did not give a second vote to anyone. If enough of his supporters were able to enjoy Palin, the Republicans would have another seat today. But it’s not over yet. The special election was held only to fill the seat for the end of Young’s term, which ends in January. That means the three major party candidates and Liberal candidate Chris Bye all go to a general election in November. As Peltola told Bloomberg’s Zachary Cohen last week, “The only game in town is really the two-year seat.” So far, there are no signs that Palin will back down. On election night, he called on Begić to drop out of the race before the November election. has every reason to stay in the race after Palin’s loss, but will risk splitting the vote again. With Democrats starting to look upbeat about their chances in the midterms across the country, it looks like the GOP needs to get tactical here. Even in Alaska, where Republicans are accustomed to winning, the Cook Political Report has now changed its rating for the November race from “Likely Republican” to “Fly.” Do we have more politics? Betcha! Subscribe to Inside Washington here. We hope you rank us first.
